Sunday, March 20, 2016

Japan Philips Curve Regression 2005.02 to 2015.02

This is me trying to recreate either Jason's or John's results from this post, and in particular, this comment.

The data I do the regression on is copied up to the top (yellow cells) under the right side of the chart in columns H and I (starting at row 30) labeled ΔEMP and ΔCPI. The ΔEMP represents a 12 month difference. These cells were copied from the big table to the left, down at the bottom (stopping at row 380) and also colored yellow. My results don't seem to match either Jason or John. Not a surprise since I'm probably doing it wrong.

Instructions for repeating what I did:

First download the data from FRED (following John's link) in Excel format. Or just download my spreadsheet (icon in lower right corner of sheet). From here on I'll assume you've downloaded my sheet (so the differences have been computed and data copied to look like mine). Select the "Data Analysis" option on the "Data" tab and then the "Regression" sub-option. You may need to download and install a Data Analysis  plug-in first. For the y values select the column of yellow cells including the  ΔCPI label at the top starting at I30. For  the x values select the column of yellow cells immediately to the left of that including the ΔEMP label at the top (starting at H30). I selected the option check-box to output the analysis on a new tab (which I called "Regression"). That's all.

For the plot (which I did separately) I used the linear regression ("show trend?") built directly into the scatter plot options. Another option there lets you display the the equation for the linear trend and the R squared value. I found that after making the plot and then looking at the options associated with the data series. The answers should match the Data Analysis results!

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