I created this version of this post to address the 2014 VAT tax Jason mentioned here (by sliding the time frame forward to 2003.12 to 2013.12 to avoid 2014 altogether).
Thanks John. In either case though, I'm still not matching Jason's points which terminate at the start of 2013 or 2014 (thus "naturally" excluding the tax hike). Any idea why?
Maybe he's using different intervals for the change in CPI and employment, which would, in my opinion, be questionable and severely reduce the signal to noise ratio in the sample, but I'm not sure.
I tried doing the same thing as Jason, but at 5-year intervals: http://ramblingsofanamateureconomist.blogspot.com/2016/03/more-on-japans-phillips-curve.html
Wren-Lewis on why excluding the tax hike might be misguided: http://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2012/04/more-on-tax-increases-versus-spending.html
ReplyDeleteThanks John. In either case though, I'm still not matching Jason's points which terminate at the start of 2013 or 2014 (thus "naturally" excluding the tax hike). Any idea why?
DeleteMaybe he's using different intervals for the change in CPI and employment, which would, in my opinion, be questionable and severely reduce the signal to noise ratio in the sample, but I'm not sure.
DeleteI tried doing the same thing as Jason, but at 5-year intervals: http://ramblingsofanamateureconomist.blogspot.com/2016/03/more-on-japans-phillips-curve.html
Delete